22/09/2026
🌊🔥 EL NIÑO IS STRENGTHENING — AND THE LATEST OUTLOOK IS SIGNIFICANT
The latest El Niño update from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, issued on 21 September 2026, confirms that El Niño is established and strengthening across the Pacific.
Sea-surface temperatures are well above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while the atmosphere is also showing patterns consistent with El Niño.
The latest weekly anomalies are particularly notable:
🌡️ Niño 3.4: +2.1°C
🌡️ Niño 3: +3.0°C
🌡️ Niño 1+2: +3.9°C
The current RONI value is +1.4°C, showing how rapidly the event has intensified during 2026.
🇿🇦 WHAT COULD THIS MEAN FOR SOUTH AFRICA?
The South African Weather Service has also issued seasonal guidance pointing towards above-normal temperatures across much of South Africa during the summer period, while parts of the country have an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall.
This is an important development when viewed alongside the rapidly strengthening El Niño.
However, El Niño does not automatically mean a dry summer across the entire country. Its influence varies considerably by region, season and other climate drivers.
🔥 A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC EL NIÑO
The latest CPC forecast gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the September–November through November–January periods.
Even more significantly, there is currently a 75% chance that the October–December 2026 event could reach historic strength — exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
El Niño is currently expected to persist into early 2027, potentially lasting through March–May 2027.
⚠️ This is still a forecast, not a certainty. Seasonal climate forecasts will continue to change as we move deeper into summer, and the actual weather experienced across South Africa will depend on several interacting climate systems.
One thing is becoming increasingly clear: El Niño 2026–27 deserves close attention.
