12/20/2025
Christmas is a big stress for myself and all my buddies in the snow industry. Hopefully this stands with no surprise snow events so all our employees can spend time with family and friends.
Our first call for a white Christmas on December 25th, 2025 is here. For 80% of the state's population... well good news and bad news. Good news is, traveling should be a breeze. Bad news is, well... no snowpack on the ground. The definition of a white Christmas are areas where at least 1" of snowpack is on the ground. A trace to 1" is a partial white Christmas, and no snow would obviously mean a green Christmas.
Synopsis
Temperatures across the Lower Peninsula primarily south of US-10 appear to be in the 40's on the 24th and 25th, with a couple locations topping 50°F. Ensemble members signify that there is still too much disagreement between how warm it'll actually get, which could delay melting of current lake effect snow. Still, areas up north should at least have a solid 3" or greater come Christmas morning, especially areas in the pink zones signifying a 50-75% chance of a white Christmas. Even being 6-days out, ensemble members range from a balmy 63°F, down to 35°F. Yes, that's for one location, specifically Grand Rapids as an example. If you remember our post about ensembles, they run 50 simulations at a time after each weather balloon launch and all of them give their best solution. In this case for Christmas, some models are hinting at mid-30's still, while others top out around 60°F for a high.
These percentages are accurate as of today, December 19th, but will be subject to change over the next week. With zonal flow in the area, the jet stream will continue to wobble. Think of it as Michigan is playing jump rope. Every time the rope goes over our heads, warm air is pulled into the region, but as the rope goes under our feet, the warm air goes beneath us, or back south in this example. It seems like every 6-12 hours we are doing a full jump with the way our future model runs have played out to this point. Stick around here at Michigan Storm Chasers for more winter updates as we continue full steam ahead into 2026.
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