09/17/2026
After my post yesterday, I realized somethingâŠ
I should probably explain WHY Iâm talking about El Niño in the first place.
Because before I did what I do now, I didnât really understand it either.
Iâd hear âEl Niñoâ or âLa Niñaâ on the weather and basically think, Alright⊠apparently thatâs something Iâm supposed to understand. đ
So hereâs the simple version.
El Niño starts thousands of miles away from us in the Pacific Ocean.
Normally, winds push warm surface water west across the tropical Pacific. During an El Niño, those winds weaken and unusually warm water develops farther east across the equatorial Pacific.
That might sound completely irrelevant to somebody sitting in Missouri.
But that huge area of warm ocean water affects the atmosphere above it.
It changes where air rises, where storms develop and, ultimately, influences the jet stream and storm tracks across North America.
Think of the jet stream almost like a highway for weather systems.
El Niño doesnât create every storm or guarantee that Missouri gets buried in snow. It changes the highway.
And when that highway changes, the types of weather systems that reach different parts of the countryâand the paths they takeâcan change with it.
Thatâs why meteorologists pay so much attention to El Niño and La Niña.
And this year is particularly interesting because weâre not just talking about a weak El Niño. NOAA is currently expecting a very strong El Niño for the 2026â27 winter.
Does that mean I can tell you exactly how much snow weâre getting in Springfield this winter?
Absolutely not. đ
But it DOES mean there is a major climate pattern developing that can influence the winter weather we experience.
And thatâs where yesterdayâs post comes in.
If your roof or exterior was already compromised by the storms this spring, I donât want snow, ice, prolonged moisture and freeze/thaw cycles to be what finally exposes that damage.
Thatâs why Iâm telling people to get their homes looked at nowânot after thereâs water coming through the ceiling.
And if youâve never really understood what El Niño meant either, donât feel bad.
I didnât for a long time.
I just finally had a reason to learn why it matters. đ
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