08/17/2026
Have you heard? El Niño is back.
NOAA just confirmed that El Niño has officially formed in the Pacific, and forecasters expect it to strengthen to a moderate or strong level by fall.
Here's what that typically means for the Northeast:
Warmer-than-average winters are common during El Niño years, but, "warmer than average" doesn't mean warm. That said, NOAA notes that every El Niño is unique, so while the pattern gives us a general picture, it doesn't tell the whole story. Regional weather, storm timing, and local conditions all play a role in how any given winter unfolds.
Source: NOAA National Weather Service (June 2026)