07/19/2026
TROPICAL UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has now officially pinned the area we've been talking about this week with a 20% chance of forming. Next name is . Here are some thoughts as of Wednesday:
1) Almost all models reversed course overnight and bumped back up the chances for development. All the ups and downs chances are typical at this early phase, which is why we want to look for consistency ahead. Considering the trend, that's why the NHC had enough to officially tag it.
2) At a minimum, this will be a rainmaker for Florida. A lot of tropical moisture moving through. The brighter the colors get in the bottom image, the greater chance you have of seeing more rainfall. *IF* it can fight off some shear and dry air, it would have a shot at over warmer than average water temps in the Northeast Gulf. Stating the obvious, that is not a lock or guarantee at this point. Again, the odds right now are at 20%, but still possible. Too early to know how strong or weak it could be if it tries to form.
3) The track possibilities are a mess and split, either having this head northeast near the Carolinas or west. Based off the NHC yellow area, I'm thinking that they're siding with the northeast trajectory more right now.
4) Timing would be this weekend into early next week.
5) Nothing to freak out about at this point. I'll continue to get you the latest 24/7 with no hype, just the facts. Thanks all, have a great day. 👍🏻
- Matt Devitt Weather
