02/19/2026
While we usually love to have the highest score, now isn't the time 😞
If you have an emergency during this storm give us a call.
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Alright folks, time for the map everyone hates. It does a really good job though at showing where best potential is.
For Thursday February 19, 2026
Basically, we have a powerful storm system moving in which will bring strong shear, sufficient moisture(especially for February) and favorable timing. Some lacking ingredients are instability could be better, forcing is strong but I've seen better and multiple rounds could limit potency of PM storms.
Let's break down the regions:
1-3 points: These regions may see some thunder, particularly areas with scores of 2-3. There will be some forcing and instability plus meager moisture and timing, but shear will be pretty low up here and storms will be on the lower side of intensity. Some small hail and gusty winds for those with scores of 3 though are possible. Timing 3P-8P, isolated coverage.
4 points: The 4 pt region we'll probably see one or two severe thunderstorms, capable of all hazards. Coverage will be a bit more limited though as best forcing and shear will be in the darker blue region of 5-6. Could we see some of the folks in the 4 pt region move into the 5? Yes, particularly if we see some increased instability. Overall I'd be aware of the situation but most in this region will probably not see severe weather, though the few that do will be glad they knew. Timing is 3P-8P, isolated coverage.
5-6 points: This is where we’ll have the highest shear, moisture, instability and forcing. If there were tornadoes, this region has the best potential. Timing is an initial round between 10A-3P and a secondary round after 4PM. All hazards possible with both. If I were to increase and put a small region of 7, it'd probably be along an Effingham to Bloomington, IN line. Those in the region we recommend be weather aware and prepared.
Overall the set up tomorrow is good but we do have some lacking ingredients. If we happen to see higher instability, then things could change. For now, we think storms will stay on the isolated side.
For those wondering, the red front across central IL is the warm front, the brown front in MO is the dry line, blue front is cold front and purple is occluded. Very technical set up!
