08/21/2026
Thursday, August 20th, 2026
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Temps up to 106 and heat index values up to 113 possible. Please take heat safety precautions.
DANGEROUS HEAT, RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
The heat dome will be strengthening into the weekend, resulting in even hotter temps. Highs could reach 104-106, and heat index values could soar to 108-113. I have upped my high temp forecast to 106 Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. That would tie the record of 106 from 2010 on Sunday. I'm forecasting a morning low of 80 on Sunday, which would break the record for warmest low, currently at 79 in 2024, 2019, and 2007. 106 would also be the hottest we've seen since August of 2024. That year, we saw 107 on August 22nd and 109 on August 21st.
Triple-digit Streak: 6 | This year: 23 | 1001-2020 Year-to-date average: 22.5 | 1991-2020 annual average: 29
Dry Streak: 27 days | Record: 65 days in 1993
RAIN REMAINS UNLIKELY
I feel pretty good about continuing a silent 5% rain chance Friday and Saturday as a weak front will be to our northeast and any rain out ahead of it will most likely fizzle before reaching us. A model or two still suggest the remote chance at a spotty shower, but the majority keep us totally dry. So the 7-day forecast will be dry through Friday and Saturday. That said, we may see the heat dome shift a little farther west next week, which may allow some showers to possibly develop Thursday the 27th. I added a 10% rain chance for now.
AIR QUALITY UPDATE
Air quality will be in the moderate range through Sunday with light Saharan dust or light smoke particles the main pollutants.
FIRE DANGER
Fire danger remains a concern as we haven't had substantial rain in weeks. It is forecast to be moderate to high across much of our area through the next few days. Thursday, the Ranch Hill Fire in Blanco County was nearly contained, listed at 23 acres and 90% contained as of 2:30 pm. Burn Bans are in effect for Mason, Llano, Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, and Milam Counties.
LAKE LEVELS
Travis: 679.63 (98% full), Buchanan: 1019.29 (98% full) Combined: 98%
TROPICS UPDATE
In the Atlantic, one disturbance in the eastern North Atlantic has a low chance of development.
In the Pacific, Hurricane Lala was weakening, Tropical Depression Two-C was tracking northwest, expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, and two other disturbances are also in the Pacific. One has a medium chance of development, the other has a high chance. Two-C is forecast to track south of the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week.
Colorado State University issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast August 5th, calling for only 9 named storms (average is 14), 4 hurricanes (7 is average), and 1 major hurricane (3 is average). So far, we've only had 3 named storms this season. El Nino and high wind shear are the biggest factors inhibiting tropical development. NOAA updated its hurricane season forecast on August 6th, also stressing a high confidence in below-normal activity this season, with 7-13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes. This could be one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons in years. In 2014, we had only 8 named storms, hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
ALLERGY REPORT
Trees: 0
Grass: 2 - Low
Weeds: 0
Molds: 876 - Low
Pollen and mold Counts are provided by Sheila M. Amar, M.D., and Allergy & Asthma Center of Georgetown. Pollen is measured in grains/cubic meter. Mold is measured in spores/cubic meter. Allergens are updated Monday through Friday, except on holidays.
WINDS FOR THE NEXT WEEK
We'll have daily winds out of the south/southwest around 5-10 mph each morning turning south to southeast each afternoon 5-10 mph.
