09/23/2024
TROPICAL UPDATE: A hurricane is likely in the Gulf this week. The majority of computer models are currently showing landfall in either the Big Bend or Panhandle of Florida Thursday into early Friday. Southwest Florida and Tampa are not in the clear just yet. Next name is . Here are my latest thoughts as of Sunday:
1. The disturbance is now classified as Invest 97L or an area we are investigating. As a result, you're going to see a lot more computer models on it for both track and strength, updated every 6 hours.
2. Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the disturbance on Monday.
3. I currently do expect this to become a hurricane and make landfall as one too. Preliminary intensity models are between Category 1 - 3 on average and it will strengthen over very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper-end intensities from a few models do show the potential for a Category 4. The 12z GFS (American) was one of those models.
5. To reiterate, the majority of computer models are currently showing landfall in either the Big Bend or Panhandle of Florida Thursday into early Friday.
6. Still too early, however, to know the specific impacts for wind, rain, surge, etc, along the Gulf Coast of Florida.
7. The models shown in this graphic are Red (European), Magenta (AI European), Orange (United Kingdom), Blue (Canadian), Yellow (American) and Green (German).
