YellowTunnel

10/08/2026

🚨 Tech Rotation Is Accelerating — SMCI Setup to Watch

The market is consolidating in a tight range, but the rotation into technology is becoming increasingly important.

This Trade of the Week video breaks down the current market structure, the semiconductor setup, and a defined-risk trade in Super Micro Computer. 📈

📊 The market setup

The model shows a neutral trend for the next 10 days as we approach midterm elections and earnings season.

Key SPX levels:

760 support
775–780 resistance

The recalibrated 6-month model sees:

740 as oversold
780 as overbought

A move toward 800 could potentially develop in December.

🌎 The bigger picture
📈 10-year yield building a top near 5.25%
📉 2-year yield pulling back
🛢️ Crude oil retreating toward its 50- and 100-day moving averages
₿ Bitcoin pushing toward 85,000
💻 Technology stocks attracting capital

At the same time, equal-weighted S&P and value stocks are correcting under interest-rate pressure.

🔥 Technology is where the relative strength is showing.

SMH is holding above 600, which was previously resistance and is now acting as support.

🎯 Trade of the Week: SMCI
Super Micro Computer
40/45 November call spread

💰 Risk: $2.45
🎯 Potential profit: $2.55

The strategy also uses option laddering, moving exposure from October toward November contracts.

👉 Watch the full Trade of the Week video on YouTube to see the complete market analysis and how the SMCI setup fits into the broader technology rotation: https://youtu.be/JBXSzTYU7wU

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad ...

10/05/2026

🚨 Semiconductors Are Breaking Out — Is SMCI the Next Move?

The market is consolidating in a tight range, but the technology rotation is becoming one of the most important developments to watch.

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down the current market structure, semiconductor momentum, and a defined-risk SMCI options trade.

📊 Where Is the Market Heading?

The model is showing a neutral trend for the next 10 days as we approach midterm elections and earnings season.

The key SPX levels:
📍 760 support
📍 775–780 resistance

The newly recalibrated 6-month model sees:
🔻 740 = oversold
🔺 780 = overbought

A move toward 800 could potentially develop in December.

🌎 The Cross-Currents
Several major factors are competing for market attention:
📈 10-year yield building a top near 5.25%
📉 2-year yield pulling back
🛢️ Crude oil returning to its 50- and 100-day moving averages
₿ Bitcoin pushing toward 85,000
💻 Rotation into technology stocks

At the same time, equal-weighted S&P and value stocks are correcting under interest-rate pressure.

🔥 Semiconductors Are Showing Strength
Semiconductors continue to grind higher.
SMH holding above 600 — now acting as support after previously serving as resistance — could open the door to new all-time highs.

🎯 Trade of the Week: SMCI
The week's signal is Super Micro Computer (SMCI).

40/45 November call spread
💰 Risk: $2.45
🎯 Potential profit: $2.55

An option ladder is also being built, moving from October to November contracts, with October positions expected to close in the coming week.

👉 Watch the full Trade of the Week video on YouTube to see the complete market outlook and how the SMCI trade fits into the broader semiconductor rotation: https://youtu.be/-WBaMWALbu0

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad ...

10/01/2026

✈️ United Airlines + Falling Oil: Is UAL Ready for a Breakout?

The market is turning slightly positive as we head into earnings season and the end of Q3, with the model signaling potential new highs in the next two weeks. 📈
In this Trade of the Week video, we look at the technical setup, interest rates, oil prices, and an airline sector that could be positioned for a rebound.

📊 What's Happening in the Market?
The SPX has broken the downtrend that started at the beginning of August.

At the same time:
📈 The market is handling rising interest rates and oil prices relatively well.
🔄 The yield curve is steepening.
📉 The 2-year yield has pulled back, signaling a potential normalization.
🛢️ Crude oil has pulled back to its 50- and 100-day moving averages.
🚀 QQQ is sitting at all-time highs.

The core scenario is a potential market breakout over the next two weeks or into the midterm elections.

⚠️ The Risk
The rapid 5% rise in yields last week remains a major risk.
At some point, the market may not be able to absorb that pace.

🎯 Trade of the Week: UAL
United Airlines remains weak despite lower oil prices — potentially creating an opportunity as earnings season approaches.

UAL 111/116 call spread — October expiration
💰 Entry: $3.10
⚠️ Risk: $3.10
🎯 Potential profit: $1.90

The strategy also spreads risk between October and November positions.

👉 Watch the full Trade of the Week video on YouTube to see the complete setup and how defined-risk options are being used to position for a potential breakout: https://youtu.be/IkmIYJqu2u8

09/28/2026

✈️ United Airlines Is Oversold — Is a Big Bounce Coming?

The market is turning slightly positive as we head into earnings season and the end of Q3, with the model signaling potential new highs in the next two weeks. 📈

In this Trade of the Week video, the focus is on the technical setup, interest rates, oil prices, and an oversold airline sector that may be setting up for a potential rebound.

📊 What We're Watching

📈 The SPX has broken the downtrend that started at the beginning of August.
📊 The market is handling rising interest rates and rising oil prices relatively well.
🔄 The yield curve is steepening, while the 2-year yield pulled back — a healthy sign of normalization.
🛢️ Crude oil pulled back to its 50- and 100-day moving averages.
🚀 QQQ is sitting at all-time highs.

The core scenario is that the market could break higher, either within the next two weeks or potentially into the midterm elections.

⚠️ The Risk

The rapid 5% rise in yields last week is an important risk to watch.

At some point, the market may not be able to absorb that pace, whether the resulting pullback materializes this year or next.

🎯 Trade of the Week: United Airlines
Airlines have been oversold and haven't rebounded despite the drop in oil prices.

That creates a potential setup as earnings season approaches.

UAL 111/116 call spread — October expiration
💰 Entry: $3.10
⚠️ Risk: $3.10
🎯 Potential profit: $1.90

Risk is also being diversified between October and November positions.

👉 Watch the full Trade of the Week video on YouTube to see how the setup works and how defined-risk structure can be used when positioning for a potential breakout: https://youtu.be/AZpMBdCpZ10

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad ...

09/21/2026

🔍 Every Stock Has a Second Price — and Most Retail Traders Never See It

Most retail traders watch the stock price on their screen. Institutional traders watch a different price — one that's hidden inside the options market. 📊

Catch the replay of Vlad Karpel's free webinar on synthetic positions and implied forward prices.

📋 What You'll Learn:

🔹 What synthetic positions actually are — how combinations of options replicate a stock position, and why that relationship matters
🔹 How to extract the implied forward price — the level the options market is genuinely pricing in
🔹 What that price reveals that the quote on your screen doesn't — including dividends, carry costs, and borrowing pressure
🔹 How to apply it — turning the concept into a practical read you can use

Why This Session Is Worth Your Time:

The options market is continuously pricing in expectations about where a stock is headed. That information sits right there in the options chain — visible to anyone who knows how to read it.

This isn't a secret or a loophole. It's a standard institutional concept that simply doesn't get taught at the retail level. Most traders go their entire careers without learning it.

Once you can see it, you can't unsee it.

📽️ Watch now: https://youtu.be/5g99aDGutSE

⚠️ This webinar is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.

Most retail traders watch the stock price on their screen. Institut...

09/21/2026

🎯 Volatility Bands Are Collapsing — A Breakout Is Coming in the Next Few Weeks

The market is coiling into a tight range, and one technical signal stands out: volatility bands are compressing. Historically, that's what happens right before a range breakout. 📊

In this week's Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down how to position for a move that's coming — without pretending to know the direction in advance.

📊 The Setup:

🔹 The model reads neutral for the next 10 days, heading toward earnings season and the midterm elections
🔹 Interest rates are stabilizing after the Fed decision
🔹 Triple witching expiration is behind us
🔹 Volatility bands are collapsing — a technical signal that a range breakout is coming in the next few weeks

⚖️ The Two-Way Scenario:

🔻 If Middle East escalation hits, or the 10-year yield rises rapidly above 5% → the SPX could revisit 747.50
🔺 If oil pulls back and rates ease → the market could break out to the upside

🛡️ How Vlad Is Positioned:

He remains bullish overall — his portfolio is delta positive with beta under 1 — while keeping a QQQ put spread hedge in place. Bullish, but insured.

👀 The Seasonality Tell Worth Understanding:

This is the part most traders will miss. If this week doesn't bring a pullback, Vlad believes the historical late-September pullback already happened underneath the indexes.

Utilities, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary have all pulled back to their 200-day moving averages — but that damage was masked by the dispersion trade and pinned indexes. The correction happened; it just wasn't visible at the index level.

🎯 This Week's Signal — Coinbase (COIN):

✅ A defined-risk COIN 175/180 call spread expiring in October
✅ Risking $3.40 to make $1.60
✅ The thesis: COIN's strong Friday rebound despite the Clarity Act failing to pass, consolidation on above-average volume, and Vlad's view that October and November are typically bullish — especially after midterms

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions for a range breakout — with hedges in place and defined-risk structure — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

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🔗 Watch here:

The market is coiling into a tight range, and volatility bands are ...

09/15/2026

⚡ VIX at 14 Isn't Comfort — It's the Warning Most Traders Are Misreading

Cheap volatility heading into a binary data week doesn't mean the market is safe. It means nobody is paying for protection. That distinction was the centerpiece of this session — and the full recording, including the XYZ trade walkthrough, is now available. ▶️

🎯 Inside the Replay, You'll See:
📊 Vlad's 10-day and 6-month outlook — why the model sees a 740–811 range
⚡ A live walkthrough of this week's XYZ 77.50/82.50 call spread
🛡️ How Vlad is hedging with SPY and QQQ into the CPI + Fed catalysts
📈 The semiconductor tell — is Friday's rally the start of a bigger bounce?
🤖 How to use the Stock Forecast Toolbox, Active Trader, and Aggressive Power Trader for daily signals

📋 Key Takeaways From the Session:
🎯 The if-then framework — cool CPI + a steady Fed puts 800 in play; hot CPI means a 740 test
💰 Keep cash elevated — with sharp two-way moves likely, dry powder matters
🛡️ Hedges are already on — Vlad walked through his SPY and QQQ protection
⚡ VIX at 14 = no fear priced in — that's a warning sign, not comfort
📈 Watch semiconductors — Friday's bounce could signal a broader risk-on move

Why this one is worth your time:
The written takeaways give you the conclusions. The replay gives you the reasoning — why those specific hedges, why that expiration on the XYZ spread, and how Vlad weighs a negative near-term model against genuinely bullish breadth signals.

🎥 Watch the replay here:

A low VIX gets read as market calm. It's better read as nobody payi...

09/07/2026

⚡ 800 or 740? CPI and the Fed Decide It This Week

The market is sitting near all-time highs — but the model just turned negative heading into a huge week of catalysts. CPI, PPI, and the Fed decision all land in the next few days. 📊

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down a clean if-then framework and how he's positioning defensively.

🎯 The If-Then Setup:
🔹 If CPI comes in cool and the Fed holds rates steady → 800 is in play
🔹 If inflation runs hot → expect a retest of 740–750 (the 50-day moving average)

The SPX likely faces a choppy, sharp-move week, with a potential range of 740 to 811 in the coming weeks.

⚠️ The Mounting Cross-Currents:
🔹 The 2-year and 10-year yields are both making new highs
🔹 The 30-year remains elevated
🔹 But here's the striking part: VIX is at just 14 — meaning no fear is priced in ahead of the data

That's the detail most traders are overlooking. Cheap volatility heading into a binary catalyst week means moves can happen fast in either direction.

✅ The Bullish Tells:
🔹 Value stocks, the equal-weight S&P, and small caps are all near all-time highs — that's healthy breadth
🔹 Semiconductors rallied Friday — a potentially bullish signal

🎯 This Week's Signal:
✅ An XYZ 77.50/82.50 call spread for October expiration at $3

🛡️ Vlad's Top Advice:
Keep cash elevated and continue to hedge. In the video, he walks through the SPY and QQQ hedges he's already put on.

If you want to see how a seasoned trader positions defensively at all-time highs while still finding disciplined upside trades — this video is a must-watch. 🎥

🔗 Watch here:

⚡ The market is near all-time highs — but the model just turned neg...

08/31/2026

🚨 Microsoft Is Back Above $500 — Is This the Trade to Watch?

Microsoft has reclaimed the $500 level for the second time, while software stocks continue to outperform a technology sector that is showing increasing signs of divergence.

In this Trade of the Week, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad Karpel breaks down the cross-currents shaping the market:

📊 NVIDIA earnings beat expectations, but the rally faded after Jackson Hole.
🏦 The Fed's hawkish tone pushed the 2-year yield sharply higher.
📉 The yield curve is flattening.
💵 The dollar is approaching the critical 100 level.
😴 The VIX is pulling back, suggesting surprisingly low fear despite rising risks.
🧠 Semiconductors are under pressure, with the group trading below its 100-day moving average.
💻 Software is leading, with CRM, Okta, and Microsoft outperforming.

🎯 **This week's signal: Microsoft**

MSFT 500/505 call spread for September expiration.

Risk: $3.50
Potential profit: $1.50

But Vlad isn't ignoring the risk.

MSFT is already overbought, so the strategy is to wait for a pullback and consider only a half-size position.

With September and October historically bringing increased pullback risk, Vlad also discusses raising cash, hedging existing positions, and becoming more selective with new buys.

👉 Watch the full Trade of the Week on YouTube to see how Vlad is positioning defensively while still identifying disciplined upside opportunities: https://youtu.be/NDlvkl71HOo

In this Trade of the Week video, YellowTunnel CEO and founder Vlad ...

08/27/2026

⚕️ Why This Rally Is Fragile — And the One Sector Still Making Record Highs

The model just turned negative — and the catalysts are stacking up. 📊

You're invited: Trading the Turn: Market Outlook & Trade of the Week with Vlad Karpel, CEO & Founder of YellowTunnel.

⚠️ What's Pressuring the Tape:
🔹 Jackson Hole this week — which typically sets the tone for the Fed narrative through year-end
🔹 Brent crude at $95 and climbing
🔹 The 10-year yield at multi-year highs
🔹 U.S. government intervention in the treasury market — and now lending to Japan to defend the yen

⚕️ But Underneath the Noise, Healthcare Is at All-Time Highs:

Moderna, Merck, Medtronic, and Abbott are all leading the tape. When the broad market weakens while one sector makes new highs, capital isn't leaving — it's rotating.

So how do you position right now?

Watch as Vlad Karpel breaks down current market conditions and walks you through a real, actionable options trade — step by step.

📋 What You'll Learn:
✅ 10-day outlook — why the model turned negative and where 720 comes into play
✅ The Jackson Hole preview — how Fed signals could set the tone through midterms
✅ Trade of the Week — a live walkthrough of an Abbott (ABT) 112/117 call spread
✅ Why healthcare is leading — Moderna, Merck, Medtronic, and ABT all at ATHs
✅ The rate + oil pressure — 10-year at multi-year highs, Brent nearing $100
✅ Q&A

▶️ Watch the full beakdown: https://youtu.be/xlqN-pUIBsM

⚠️ Trading stocks and options involves risk. This webinar is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

The model just turned negative — and the catalysts are stacking up ...