09/05/2026
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COULD OKLAHOMA SEE ABOVE-NORMAL SNOWFALL THIS WINTER?
I’ve been digging through Tulsa’s snowfall history and comparing it with past El Niño winters, and there are some interesting numbers that have my attention as we look ahead to this winter.
First, Tulsa’s current 30-year normal seasonal snowfall is about 8.7 inches.
When you look back through the historical record, several El Niño winters have produced some very impressive snowfall totals in Tulsa.
1957–58: 17.2 inches
1963–64: 13.9 inches
1969–70: 20.4 inches
1972–73: 14.1 inches
1987–88: 18.2 inches
2002–03: 20.4 inches
2006–07: around 15 inches
2009–10: 22.8 inches
Those aren’t small departures from normal. Several of those winters produced roughly double Tulsa’s normal seasonal snowfall, and 2009–10 ended up being one of the snowiest winter seasons in Tulsa’s historical record.
Now, does El Niño automatically mean Oklahoma gets buried in snow?
No. And that’s important.
We’ve also had El Niño winters with very little snow. The 1997–98 winter produced only about 3.4 inches in Tulsa, and the most recent El Niño winter, 2023–24, produced only about 1.6 inches.
But El Niño can change the overall setup in a way that becomes favorable for Oklahoma.
During many El Niño winters, the southern storm track becomes more active. That can mean more systems moving across the southern United States and potentially more opportunities for precipitation across Oklahoma.
And that’s really what I’m interested in.
More opportunities.
To get a snowy winter in Oklahoma, you need storms. Then you need enough cold air available when those storms arrive.
If we can get those two ingredients to overlap several times this winter, snowfall can add up quickly.
A storm arriving with temperatures in the upper 30s gives us a cold rain.
Move that same storm into Oklahoma with temperatures below freezing and suddenly we’re talking about snow, sleet or freezing rain.
That’s why seasonal snowfall forecasting is so difficult here. The difference between a winter with 4 inches and one with 20 inches can come down to the timing of cold air with just a handful of storms.
Still, when I put the historical data together with the larger pattern we’re watching, I’m leaning toward Oklahoma having a better opportunity for above-normal snowfall this winter.
That’s not a prediction that Tulsa will receive 15 or 20 inches of snow. We’re simply too far away to responsibly make a snowfall forecast that specific.
But if you’re asking which direction I would lean right now?
I would lean snowier than normal rather than less snowy than normal.
There are enough pieces on the table to make this winter particularly interesting.
And remember, Oklahoma doesn’t need four straight months of bitter cold to have a big snow season. Sometimes all it takes is a few well-timed storms with cold air already established.
We’ve seen that happen before.
So for the snow lovers who have been waiting for another active Oklahoma winter, I wouldn’t start buying the sleds just yet…
But I also wouldn’t put them too far back in the garage.
