05/03/2022
The rising conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have big or small, short or protracted impact on high-frequency indicators like export-import, exchange rate, production and supplies, financial markets of Bangladesh. The global peace has never faced challenges of this significance since the World War-II.
Here's a look at how the economy of Bangladesh can be impacted by the ongoing Putin war on Ukraine
Energy
Russia accounts for exporting 6.5 million barrels of oil a day and 17% of natural gas of the world is too produced by Russia (source: BP, International Food Policy Research Institute, media reports). The ongoing war has completely destabilized the oil market with hitting the oil price above $100 per barrel which is highest since 2014. If the crisis continues, Bangladesh being an import-dependent country will be directly impacted. Bangladesh has to import huge quantity of petroleum and liquefied natural gas from West Asia. If there is any supply shortage in the energy market due to the war, Bangladesh will have to buy the same at a higher cost. The rising fuel price will increase the cost of power generation along with transportation costs and subsidies.
Edible oil
Russia and Ukraine account for 75% of sunflower oil exports all over the world. If the harvesting and processing of the oil is occluded for the war situation, or the exports are blocked, importers of Bangladesh are going to struggle to replace supplies as about 90 percent of Bangladesh's demand for edible oil is met through imports as locally produced varieties are not up to the mark. For sunflower oil, the share is even higher.
Russian projects in Bangladesh
Rooppur nuclear power plant project is the first and largest nuclear power plant in the history of Bangladesh which is under construction with the technological and financial support from Russia. About $7.8 billion in Russian aid is there in the pipeline. Financial and payment sanctions against Russia can make disbursements from the aid pipeline very difficult not to speak of the impairment of Russia's ability to do so because of foreign exchange shortages. This war may also create new complications with Bangabandhu Satellite 2 as a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has already been signed between Glavcosmos, a subsidiary of Russia's state-owned space agency Roscosmos, and Bangladesh Satellite Company.
Disruption in bilateral trade
The production and supplies in Bangladesh can be hurt by the disturbance in bilateral trade. Total exports in FY21 were about $550 million and imports $480 million. Trade with Ukraine amounts to around $350 million. Bangladesh annually imports over 1 million metric tonnes of wheat from Russia while garment manufacturers here export about $1 billion worth apparels to the Russian Federation. Apart from the apparel items Bangladesh exports jute, frozen foods, tea, leather, home textiles and ceramic products to Russia and Ukraine. There may be an immediate impact on getting payments against items already exported to Russia and Ukraine. If two months' equivalent of export payments are stuck, which is about $100 million (based on FY21 exports to Russia and Ukraine). Disruption in import supplies can hurt domestic production and stoke domestic prices. However, the magnitude of the impact on exports depends on how long the war continues. On the other hand, Bangladesh being the fifth-largest wheat importer in the world, almost no wheat import from Russia and Ukraine has taken place in Bangladesh recently. Bangladesh has been importing 80 per cent of its wheat from India ( 2020-21, data from Bangladesh Bank) . Although the price of Indian wheat has come down but started rising again, it would not be much of a crisis for Bangladesh if there is any impact of any possible war situation on the global wheat prices.
Banking Sectors
Bangladesh’s banking sector might not be able to do business with corresponding banks in Russia due to the latest embargoes imposed. With this backdrop, both local banks and business should explore alternative ways to resolve the setback.
The volatility may subside one day, even after that we will keep on facing many challenges to contend with. For the Ukraine-Russia conflict, there is no immediate resolution on the horizon even if Russia wins the ground battle. The war always keeps on moving in one form or another. We are likely to be in this environment of a multipronged and multifaceted sanctions regime for months if not longer.