10/06/2026
Isaiah/ 92l in the gulf. Since this keeps coming up in conversations and given the biblical parallels and context posting this here.
what no model nor forcaster is looking at is frontal boundaries.
The 2nd issue is there not looking at how a storm develops and areas impacted in el nino years. There merging cart Blanche data together. Thats going to skew models, give bad data sets.
Just as the models and meteorologists got Bertha wrong they will more then likely get this wrong. The data was solid weeks out on its track.
With the high pressure set to push south in south Carolina, Florida setting up what has been forcasted as a heat dome by Thursday afternoon. Timing matters. If this higb pressure is able to set in, it will form a blocking pattern several days.
I made and posted a short YouTube video on my this frontal boundary and why its important.
On El nino years storms form in the sw of the gulf, they tend to linger then rapidly intensify and favor the teaxs to new orleans. 5 of the top 10 in texas including the Galveston where El nono years from huricaines that formed in the gulf.
Theres 92e that cannot be ignored, while there was a chance 92e could pull 92l or the frontal boundary pulls 92l before high pressure sets in both scenarios are all but unlikely.
With 92e pushing moisture into the atmosphere, it will help 92l.
Now although 92l is more then likely going to go ne somewhat, frontal boundaries show it doesnt arive till Saturday to the northern gulf.
With the high pressure in place it will stay off shore till late sunday and get pushed back west towards Houston. A very simular pattern to Bertha. But more importantly in El nino years this is very common.
In El nino years exspecially around the last in 1877, 1788, 1578, and I forget the year off hand in 1600s, but overall is a 100 to 150 year pattern of this going back centuries these storms form in the sw gulf. They tend to hit the texas coastline 80% of the time. The rest favor Louisiana. Florida is rare when these storms develop in the gulf but are more common in storms that develope in the atlantic.
So theres historical context of patterns going back well beyond the 1500s that can be pulled from, frontal boundaries,
So dont rule anything out. And it shouldn't come as a surprise if it goes west and circles back like the Galveston huricaine in 1900.
Now to throw Rachel, 92e into the blender along with 2 low pressure boundaries.
92e will more then likely reach cat 2/ 3 and take a simular path as polo, it might take Rachel but unlikely. Timing is Friday new Mexico.
Rachel is likely to get hooked by a frontal boundary and pulled in impacting southern California heading due east.
This boundary will meet 92e in new mexico/ arizona.
The other frontal boundary coming in from the pacific nw heading se towards southern us, is a stornger front, it will collide friday/ saturday with rachel, 92e, at the same time the path is easterly of this boundary towards west texas, moisture from the west getting pushed in along with monsoonal moisture/ moisture pushing in from the sw,
As this moves into Texas Sunday, 92l will be pushing west but mostly stalled in the gulf. The shear and winds keeping 92l in check in the gulf, will get pushed north and east as this western front comes in. These 2 systems will collide but might remain seperate. After a few days they will push ne when a opening opens up in the blocking pattern.
92l being in the gulf could allow it to stay strong dumping rain and tornadoes inland.
If it goes west more so and merges, could be a single entity, but in that scenario it could go east into the gulf and restregthen. By then the high pressure in Florida would be moving oyt and a impact of Florida pan handle would be possible and more likely.
Overall impacts will be very heavy rain over several days main concern.
With the runoff coefficient increased from previous flooding in many areas set to be impacted and some still recovering from polo, this has serious potential.
I do hope the data is bad and this high pressure stays north. It is the trigger in all of this that determines the outcome but historical patterns just like Bertha earlier this give context of what could be to come.
Timing is everything and counting minutes not hours with these patterns.
No matter what folks need to stay weather aware,
Folks need to have a plan,
Folks need to be prepared.
Thoughts and prayers.