02/23/2019
Good evening,
After a week of frigid temperatures and wind chills, which will continue through tomorrow, much of Newfoundland is set to receive some snowfall on Monday as a major system approaches from Eastern Canada. A persistent northwest flow this week has funneled frigid Arctic air down across Labrador and Newfoundland, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal. This combined with gusty northwest winds produced wind chills of -20 to -35 through the week. As mentioned, very cold temperatures continue through Monday morning, but the approaching system will bring temperatures closer to seasonal later Monday, along with the snow.
An intensifying low in the US Midwest will track across Ontario Sunday, then into Quebec Monday. At the same time, a second low associated with the main system develops over the Maritimes Monday morning, which will track across Newfoundland Tuesday. Snow and blowing snow develop in southwestern Newfoundland near dawn Monday (5-7 AM), spreading to the north and east through the morning hours, reaching the Avalon near noon and in the afternoon on the Northern Peninsula. Snow will taper to flurries Monday evening for most areas of Newfoundland, except after midnight on the Northern Peninsula. Flurries continue Tuesday as the system crosses the region.
The snow will be accompanied by strong winds from the southeast gusting up to 60 km/h for inland areas, but up to 100 km/h along the coast (except gusting to 140 km/h in the Wreckhouse area). This will create low visibilities in blowing and drifting snow Monday morning through the evening hours. Near whiteout conditions are possible in many areas, particularly Monday afternoon and evening. Travel delays and cancellations are possible Monday.
As for snowfall amounts, the highest amounts look to occur on the South Coast where 20-30 cm is expected by Tuesday morning. Most areas will see at least 10-15 cm of snow Monday, with much of the Avalon expecting close to 15-20 cm before tapering to flurries Monday evening.
The low will move across Newfoundland Tuesday morning, then it is expected to stall north of Newfoundland into Thursday morning. This will cause strong westerly winds from Tuesday through Thursday with onshore flurries and a risk of snow squalls. However, much of the Gulf of St. Lawrence is covered in sea ice, which will limit any significant onshore snowfall on the West Coast; however, squalls are possible on the Burin and Avalon Peninsulas.
Snowfall Amounts Monday-Tuesday:
Avalon Peninsula, Bonavista Peninsula and Clarenville: 12-20 cm
Burin Peninsula: 15-25 cm
Central Newfoundland: 8-15 cm
South Coast (west of Burin Peninsula): 20-30 cm
West Coast and Northern Peninsula: 15-25 cm
Storm Timeline for St. John’s-Metro:
Monday 12 – 3 PM: Snow and blowing snow developing by 2 PM. Amount 2 cm. Wind southeast 40 gusting to 70 km/h.
Monday 3 – 6 PM: Snow at times heavy. Amount 7-10 cm. Wind increasing to southeast 60 gusting to 90 km/h.
Monday 6 – 9 PM: Snow at times heavy tapering to flurries. Amount 4-6 cm. Wind diminishing to southeast 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Monday 9 PM – Midnight: Flurries. Risk of freezing drizzle. Wind southwest 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Tuesday 12 – 6 AM: Flurries. Wind southwest 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
Outlook: In behind the Monday/Tuesday system, strong westerlies will continue through Thursday with a return to colder temperatures and wind chills, but not nearly as cold as this past week.
Brian
