06/12/2021
I wrote this in 2009:
I wonder whether the concept of having baseload generating plants is becoming outmoded.
It is starting to appear that what we may need in the future is a significant pe*******on of renewable electricity sources (wind electric, biomass electric, waste-heat electric, solar photovoltaics, solar-thermal electric, and geothermal electric). This will drastically reduce our environmental footprint (easily 60%). However we then need something to be able to accommodate the uncontrollable and variable nature of wind and solar PV -- this would be provided by high-ramp-rate fuel-burning turbine-based generating plants (at first using natural gas and then adding H2 and renewable fuels) and electricity storage facilities (pumped hydro dams, battery banks) that are able to provide spinning reserve and very very quick changes in electricity generation and grid formation in order to meet the increases and decreases in the net load.
As a result of the highly-variable net grid-load, I wonder if it is going to increasingly become difficult to justify building baseloaded plants -- to justify spending $2 billion to $12 billion only to see the market start to evaporate because that business-economics model did not allow for society's demands for electricity that are free from environmental effects (air, water, land, and habitat), free from catastrophic risks, and free from belabouring future generations with our near-term choices plus did not foresee the increasing ability of the renewable energy industry to supply these demands at a capital cost, an operating cost, an environmental cost and a life-cycle cost that is less than those costs for the baseloaded plants.
We need to keep in mind also, that it is not the government's job to restrict the development of disruptive technologies that make inflexible business models obsolete -- this is what competitive business risk is all about (as I am told).